Policy modelling

Simulation models with explicit assumptions, welfare arithmetic and audit trails, covering alcohol minimum unit pricing, sugar taxation and cannabis policy.

Policy simulation models with explicit assumptions, welfare arithmetic and two-ledger audit: alcohol MUP, sugar tax and cannabis policy.

Know what a policy will do before you pass it.

Decisions without evidence

Policies that can't be defended

Arithmetic you can interrogate

Why Byt-Wyze models hold up under scrutiny

Ready to model policy impact?

Minimum unit pricing. Sugar taxes. Cannabis legalisation. Every one of them is a billion-pound bet on a spreadsheet nobody can check.

Our policy models turn that bet into arithmetic you can open, adjust and defend: calibrated to local data, audited line by line, and compliant with the HM Treasury Green Book.

A council weighing up alcohol pricing, or a Treasury team costing a sugar tax, works from consultant reports: static PDFs with hidden assumptions, national averages where local data exists, and no way to test a different scenario without paying for another report.

When the numbers can't be interrogated, the appraisal can't survive scrutiny. Reviews get challenged, judicial reviews cite the modelling, and good policies die because nobody can show their working, while bad ones pass on a confident headline figure.

Every Byt-Wyze model runs live in the browser. Move a policy lever and watch twenty-year projections, welfare channels and Treasury revenue recompute in real time. Every parameter is sourced, every identity closes to the penny, and every method follows the Green Book.

Five working instruments: a locally calibrated alcohol MUP appraisal for Portsmouth, a Treasury-safe sugar tax cost-benefit engine, two cannabis fiscal simulations, and a strategy game that lets you feel the trade-offs a Chancellor faces. Not slide decks: software you can use today.

  • Policy Modelling | Byt-Wyze
  • Penny-Precise Accounting
  • Consumer spend equals tax + legal revenue + illicit revenue with zero residual: algebraically proven, not rounded.
  • Green Book 2024 Compliant
  • STPR 3.5%, BCR, distributional welfare weights, switching values, and dual CBA perspectives: built in from the start.
  • Locally Calibrated
  • Every parameter calibrated to local primary data sources: no national defaults where local evidence exists.
  • Published Elasticities
  • Holmes 2014 Lancet matrices and peer-reviewed econometric evidence underpin all demand modelling.
  • Full Audit Trail